Notes

HYPOTHESIS: If price is to initiate a high quality and high probability 15M reasoning move, potentially allowing me to apply my Reasoning Model, and is to do so within a confluence that could potentially be utilised as the objective of this reasoning move, it is likely that price is to not do so, but is rather likely to seek another confluence as the objective of this reasoning move. For example, if a 15M bullish reasoning move is initiated as a bearish 1H FVG is continuously being respected, it is likely that this reasoning move is to seek another confluence as its objective as opposed to the hourly FVG already being moved within. This is supported by my market understanding and the fact that by initiating a reasoning move it means price does not have the necessary reason to continue in a certain direction, which if a confluence is already being moved within, is still the case, indicating that confluence is not giving price the necessary reason to continue in that manner. This is something that needs more data to support it, however, and for me to thus act based off of.

NOTE: The data below will consist of two sections, one labelled “Supports”, and the other “Disproves”. The supports section will display data that supports this hypothesis, and the disproves section will display data that disproves this hypothesis. The data collected will be derived not from only actual trade possibilities, but rather instances in which a 15M reasoning move has been made applicable and crystal clear in all regards, which can include actual trade possibilities, but is not limited to them. Each section will include a “Totals” sentence, defining the total amount of scenarios that disprove and support my hypothesis, as well as the combined R-Multiple of each section. Each example will include a “Structure” sentence, which is purposed to display the low timeframe structure of price in the scenario, and should be answered with “In Favour”, “Against”, or “Lack Of”, if a lack of structure is being employed. A “Result” sentence will also be included, which is to be filled out with the confluence sought of the model and the applicable R-Multiple. A sentence labelled “Confluences” will also be included, highlighting the confluences of the example and defining their timeframes. Another sentence labelled “Initiation Liquidity” will be included, which will define the liquidity that initiated the reasoning move, to determine if certain liquidity is of higher probability than other liquidity. All data will be derived from opportunities that are exactly as they need to be, and which are displayed between the times of 6:00pm and 11:00pm.