Notes

HYPOTHESIS: If price is to initiate a high quality and high probability 15M reasoning move, potentially allowing me to apply my Reasoning Model, and is to do so within a low probability confluence that could potentially be utilised as the objective of this reasoning move, it is likely that price is to not do so, but is rather likely to seek another confluence as the objective of this reasoning move. For example, if a 15M bullish reasoning move is initiated as a weakly generated 15M bearish inverse FVG is being moved within, it is likely that this reasoning move is to seek another confluence as its objective as opposed to the weakly generated 15M bearish inverse FVG already being moved within. This is supported by my market understanding and the fact that by initiating a reasoning move it means price does not have the necessary reason to continue in a certain direction, which if a confluence is already being moved within, is still the case, indicating that confluence is not giving price the necessary reason to continue in that manner. This is something that needs more data to support it, however, and for me to thus act based off of.

NOTE: Data collected will be split into two sections; “Supports” and “Disproves”. The “Supports” section will include data that supports this hypothesis and the “Disproves” section will therefore collect data that disproves this hypothesis. Each section will have a “Totals” sentence, which will track the total quantity of examples within each section, as well as the total R-Multiple. Each example will include a sentence titled “Structure”, to determine simply whether the market structure is “In Favour” or “Against” the trade, or if a “Lack Of” structure is being employed. A further sentence labelled “Confluences” will be included, which will define only the confluence/s that the reasoning move was initiated within, and the next confluence potentially acting as the objective of the reasoning move, whether it is low probability or high probability. A sentence below this labelled “Probability of Confluences” will be incorporated, which will see each aforementioned confluence, besides for the objective, have their probabilities defined, being “Probable”, “Improbable”, or “Undefined”, with all data being obtained from individual confluence sections, and being measured in relation to the probability of the confluence being disregarded. A final sentence titled “Result” will be included, which will highlight whether the objective was sought or if the confluence the reasoning move was initiated in was sought, as well as the R-Multiple of the example, if applicable. Another sentence labelled “Initiation Liquidity” will be included, which will define the liquidity that initiated the reasoning move, to determine if certain liquidity is of higher probability than other liquidity. All data will be derived from opportunities presented between the times of 6:00pm and 11:00pm, and examples that do and do not present trade opportunities, ensuring that everything is aligned with what is of high probability according to my data, and that every example is exactly as it needs to be. Each example will include a screenshot of the necessary timeframe to demonstrate the confluences the reasoning move was initiated within, and a screenshot of the 5M timeframe to demonstrate the outcome of the reasoning move.